lifeboat. but so far, there have been no signs of any survivors. unclear as to exactly how it could have happened, but u.s. military officials say there was obviously a midair collision. it was one of those instantaneo instantaneous, catastrophic events where the crews didn't even have time to radio back to their base. the search continues, but they are being hampered by 12-foot-high winter seas there off the coast of hawaii, tamron. >> as we know, we're working to get more details, but it is incredible, as you pointed out, that this was so catastrophic, so fast, that the crew did not have time to radio and that this emergency search and rescue was launched almost immediately, but so far, no one's been found. >> reporter: that's right. i mean, by all accounts, it appears those two helicopters collided and immediately went down, and the search for survivors continues. >> and again, back to what you

were detailing was happening there, mick, this was a routine training mission here? >> reporter: as far as we know. now, they do have -- the marines do have a live fire range that's outlined in the open waters off oahu. not clear that they were conducting live fire training missions, but that would certainly be one of the possible nighttime training missions that they would be undertaking. >> all right, mick. again, 12 missing after the collision of two marine helicopters off hawaii. we'll continue to bring you any information on that search and rescue happening right now. also this morning, republican presidential candidates back on the campaign trail after sparring in their first debate of the year. in the last hour, jeb bush picked up an endorsement from his former rival, south carolina senator lindsey graham. meanwhile, we have live pictures of donald trump's rally. it's set to get under way in iowa any minute now. with just 17 days to go before the iowa caucuses, candidates are shifting their focus, of course, to that important state. trump is coming off a night that

saw him sparring with ted cruz, a clear sign that their truce is over. one of their sharpest exchanges came early over cruz's eligibility to be president. >> back in september, my friend, donald, said that he had had his lawyers look at this from every which way, and there was no issue there, there was nothing to this birther issue. now -- [ laughter ] since september, the constitution hasn't changed. >> i already know that democrats are going to be bringing a suit. you have a big lawsuit over your head while you're running, and if you become the nominee, who the hell knows if you can even serve in office? so, you should go out, get a declaratory judgment, let the courts decide, and you shouldn't have mentioned the polls, because that would have been much better. >> but why now? why are you raising this issue now. >> because now he's doing a little bit better. >> another bitter exchange came after senator cruz repeated a line he's recently adopted on

the trail, denouncing trump's so-called new york values. >> everyone understands that the values in new york city are socially liberal, are proabortion, are pro gay marriage, focused around the money and media. >> when the world trade center came down, i saw something that no place on earth could have handled more beautifully, more humanly than new york. we rebuilt downtown manhattan, and everybody in the world watched and everybody in the world loved new york and loved new yorkers. and i have to tell you, that was a very insulting statement that ted made. >> now, trump wasn't the only one in cruz's cross hairs. he also went after senator marco rub rubio. they engaged over the issue of immigration, national security and even taxes. >> that rubio/schumer amnesty

bill, one of the things it did was it expanded barack obama's power to let in syrian refugees. >> you used to support people coming here legally and now you're against it. you used to say you were in favor of birthright citizenship, now you're against it. >> i appreciate you dumping your research folder on the debate. >> it's your record. >> and katy tur is in charleston, south carolina, the site of the debate, along with hallie jackson in south carolina, where cruz is campaigning. and with us, chris jansing traveling in iowa with trump. chris, i'll start with you, because we are waiting for this rally to begin. another big crowd. what are you hearing from people there as it relates to whether or not they are solidly now behind donald trump after this last debate performance? >> reporter: look, we've been seeing it, right, and we hear it as we go and we talk to people, that this enthusiasm is building. the question has been out there for a very long time, has been,

he's bringing all these new people in. many of them are standing in this crowd right now who have never been to a caucus before. they've taken time off of work or last weekend when i was in ottumwa, they stood in subfreezing temperatures for an hour and a half. many of them never even got into the hall. they had to be in an adjacent room where they watched him on a television. they say they're going to come out. that really is sort of the big question here. iowa is tailor-made for ted cruz. i mean, this is a state where 56% of voters last time around on the republican side were christian evangelicals. one of cruz's most popular surrogates in this state is a dad, a minister. and so, as i talked to donald trump as he was going on into "morning joe" this morning, you know, he's feeling and his campaign is feeling confident and maybe even a tiny bit surprises about the way things are going in iowa. if it happens that he comes tantalizingly close or wins

here, it really will throw once again politics on its head as we know it. this is a state that thrives on person-to-person contact. he hadn't been in iowa for 11 days when he came to ottumwa. he's something like 12th in the number of appearances that he has made in this state. and yet, you can see, this was a very last-minute add. and the place is packed. it goes all the way back to the doors. and they like their odds right now. they say they've got a ground game, in spite of the fact, as you saw a big article in "the new york times" yesterday, of really questioning the strength of the ground game here in iowa, and we know that ted cruz is as strong. >> and hallie, you are following cruz's campaign today. chris made the point and we've said it over and over, iowa is ta tailor-made for someone like ted cruz. it was tailor-made for someone like ben carson, until we saw his big decline. one of the headlines is ted cruz's comments about new york and new york values. and i think chuck todd made an

excellent point, that while people in this wonderful city of new york that i currently live in certainly took offense, including one of the tabloids, showing the statue of liberty flipping off ted cruz, if that's the proper way to describe it. in iowa, did cruz hit a note that i think maybe those folks would understand? maybe the folks in my home state of texas would understand, but does it play well in new york? >> reporter: i think that the reaction you're seeing from new yorkers is the reaction that the cruz campaign expected to see from people who live in new york, frankly. you talked about that "daily news" cover. i had an opportunity to speak to a campaign aide about that, and the reaction was, simply, winning, basically. that this is what happens when you're on top, people come at you, people take aim. the fact that a new york newspaper is hitting ted cruz is of very little concern, of no concern to the campaign, because they are not playing to the new york media. they're playing to folks in iowa and in south carolina. and while trump did have that moment last night, and you played it in that introe, where he talked about the world trade centers coming down and people

rallying around new york city, i am curious to see what the sense is on the ground from voters and from folks who support both of these candidates in both south carolina and iowa, because that's where this message is aimed over and over again. we've heard ted cruz and his surrogates talk about how, hey, we like new york. new york doesn't have our values. >> yeah. and katy, let me bring you in. i know the big point that trump has been driving home is whether or not ted cruz is electable. he even brought in the fact that if he chose ted cruz to be his vice president, the nominee, that there would be some questions. with that said, i thought that ted cruz was well prepared bringing up questions regarding donald trump's own heritage and some of those who are strict about what they believe applies or qualifies to be president might bring up his background and that of his mother. >> reporter: certainly, but there's a lot of people out there who were kind of thrown for a loop by that. nobody has ever debated whether or not you're a natural-born citizen in a presidential debate, at least because your

mother was born overseas. >> but all of the experts so far, even though it's not actually been challenged in court, have sided with ted cruz, and that's not stopped donald trump. i guess the point many people are making -- >> reporter: all of the experts have not sided with ted cruz. all of the experts have not. lawrence tribe has not sided with ted cruz, and there's a number of other people who are questioning it now, and i think it's partially because, especially people in the senate, it's partially because ted cruz hasn't made a lot of friends with his colleagues. you saw john mccain come after him. so, there are still questions out there, and that's also surprising a lot of people as well -- >> let me stop you, because what you said, katy tur was that many of them, because they're not friends of ted cruz -- you bring up john mccain -- and we know it's not worked itself through the court system. my point is that under the world of donald trump, fact-checking doesn't apply, so it doesn't hurt ted cruz in throwing out his own curveball with something he sees as illegitimate. and you're absolutely right, there are some experts who do not side with ted cruz, but

there are those who do. >> reporter: absolutely. and i think that you're right to say that facts don't necessarily matter when it comes to donald trump. he does go out there and say a lot of untrue things. politifact, in fact, said that he said the most falsehoods during the past year than anybody else. what he does go out there and do is try to paint a picture, and that picture isn't always backed up by facts. he says he's going win the latino vote. he says that he's leading in every single poll when he isn't actually doing that. but what he is trying to do, especially when it comes to ted cruz, is sew the seeds of doubt in voters' minds. he's trying to question him. he's trying to have this whisper campaign against him, to say that if he does get the nomination, there's going to be a lot of questions about whether or not he's even going to be eligible to win the presidency. the democrats are going to bring a lawsuit. it's not me. so, this is his strategy. whether it's going to work, we're going to have to wait and see. but donald trump is a master at manipulating the situation and

turning the focus from his negatives to somebody else's. remember, last night he was able to own the new york values comment, own it and say that i am proud of where new york has come from, i'm proud of what they've done after 9/11 and how they rebuilt in a way that even ted cruz had to clap. it's interesting, because donald trump has been by far the most controversial and the most divisive candidate in this campaign so far, yet, he came off as the most statesmanlike person on that stage in that moment. and almost wiping from the minds the memory of all of his past divisive comments, all of his past outrageous statements, the fact that he's actually trying to ban an entire religion from coming into this country. so, what you're seeing from donald trump is just trying to play the media in some ways and also play voters, convince them that he's more mature when he's the one that's saying these outrageous things most of the time. >> i don't know if people would say that it's wiped from the minds, many of the things he

said regarding muslims. maybe in a certain set or a certain room -- >> reporter: but it's not the headline any longer in the news today. >> it's not the headline today, but the larger question, chris, if he gets the nomination, will it be the headline when he faces off against the democratic rival, whether it's hillary clinton or bernie sanders? as katy pointed out, it may have been wiped from the minds of a few people last night, but the larger picture is can he win the white house? >> reporter: well, i think absolutely, that's true. and you know, you're already seeing that he's taken -- here's the thing about donald trump that you cannot ignore. this guy has been on a mad learning curve. remember, he's only been a politician for a matter of months, and look at how he's even changed his debate performances. widespread belief that last night was his best debate performance. there was a time not so long ago when he was coming in and out of iowa. he could barely land his plane and he was gone. now he's decided, since he came into town, he did "morning joe" this morning, well, why not swing by, do an interview or two

and get a crowd here and get some coverage on the local media. he's going to pay for that movie theater, to your point about the general election, to show that benghazi movie that's out there now. so you know, he's really been somebody who has always learned very quickly and tried to sort of stay that step ahead. if there is something that even his critics will talk about, it's that learning curve and that eye that's always looking forward and not looking back. >> absolutely. and hallie, let me bring you back in. when you look at some of the social media that our "first read" team has pointed out, rich lowry, for example, says from his conversations, the gop establishment on trump moving from fear and loathing to realization, i.e., he would run better than cruz and slam hillary, what are you hearing within the campaign? is there a difference with last night and the votes?

>> reporter: right now, the strategy is what it has been for months now, which is go after the conservative base, try to coalesce conservatives around ted cruz, and then potentially, potentially win over that establishment segment of the party, but that's not -- it doesn't appear to be their priority at the moment. i think that you're right in that there seems to be a sense of acceptance that donald trump could certainly be the nominee, and looking ahead to what that means in the general election. but cruz is not giving up on that altogether, at least that's my sense. i would also note, as we talked about this birther issue, if donald trump owned that moment about new york values, a lot of folks believe that cruz owned the moment on the eligibility issue. i asked donald trump about that in the spin room. hey, are you going to keep going after ted cruz on this? and the answer essentially was, yeah, there's questions out there, and he will continue to ask them. >> all right. thank you very much, chris jansing, katy tur, hallie jackson, great pleasure. bringing in our panel, msnbc analyst and former adviser to rand paul's campaign, elise

jordan. and political analyst and former pennsylvania governor ed rendell. thank you for joining us. governor rendell, what is your take on that debate last night? was there any game-changing moment, or did pretty much we see this as a three-person race going in and three-person race going out with marco rubio now in that third slot? >> i think that's basically correct, tamron. i think donald trump did well. i think it was his best debate performance, and he drl own that new york values moment. i thought he was even a little emotional, and i thought it was in some ways a very touching answer. ted cruz did very well at the front of the debate. then he got in it with rubio, and i think that was less good for him. rubio i thought was okay, but i thought the winner probably was donald trump. and remember, what donald trump those do is win iowa. he doesn't have to win iowa big, but if he wins iowa, he'll win new hampshire big and he'll win south carolina big. and he'll have incredible momentum.

someone needs to beat him somewhere in the first four states. >> elise, let me bring you in. you have, for example, joe scarborough saying this morning, if donald trump wins iowa, there is no stopping him. what is your belief there? >> well, i think there's a lot of truth to that. it's going to be interesting to see if trump can actually take iowa, since his ground game there in the caucuses are a very different beast from voting in new hampshire. so, we'll have to see how that plays out and if he can translate these crowds into actually going out and caucusing on a cold winter night. but i do think that if trump gets momentum, yes, it will be incredibly hard to stop him. >> at this point, we're looking at -- and i thought it was interesting the way he answered. you know, back in september, ted cruz's electability was no big deal. now here we are, the new year, it is a big deal, pointed out by ted cruz. does that present a problem with donald trump? katy tur's been covering his campaign, and it seems that there's this weird acceptance of

donald trump changing his stance, massaging, if you will, the facts of things. people would call that something else. and i think we know what they would call it. but nevertheless, does he have a problem there that he's already willing to evolve or morph into a different candidate as needed? >> well, i think that trump handled that moment beautifully last night when he was asked, well, why are you bridgie in br this now? well, ted's doing a little bit better, of course. and his honesty, i really feel like won him some points there, because clearly, that is all this is about. he feels threatened by cruz suddenly. but what's amazing is trump is getting traction. he knows how to gin up a birther movement. and right now, just a new reuters poll, 27% of republican primary voters believe that ted cruz's birth in canada means that he is ineligible to be president. and i think that's going to be a huge problem for cruz. >> but elise, under that

premise -- and we know that during the primary, candidates, both sides, play to their base -- under that guise, then, would you and the republicans be okay with donald trump if he is your nominee then changing some of these stances so that he could get independent voters, some of the very things that that packed crowd in iowa certainly don't believe this straight shooter is willing to change? >> well, it does look somewhat like the establishment republicans are favoring trump over cruz and are somewhat -- you know, it's just going through the stages of a grief, i guess, and maybe now they're over the anger and starting to get to the acceptance, just because it looks like trump probably might be the inevitable nominee, and perhaps trump would stand a better chance against hillary, although polls don't necessarily show that. but there is just such a deep vitriol towards cruise and the

establishment that they would even take donald trump, his extreme baggage and horrible misstatements over cruz. >> which is interesting, governor rendell, because you have this debate coming up this weekend with hillary clinton and bernie sanders, a whole separate set of issues for her, but in the head-to-head matchup, trump does not fair well against hillary clinton here, but that seems to be an issue that doesn't matter at this point. i believe that some of the base and some of -- he says he will win new york, for example, which would be quite a feat for him, that he believes that he can bring some of these people into his fold. >> well, you know, the trump phenomena is amazing. you talk about him switching his position on whether ted cruz is eligible to run for president. you know, he had a position a month ago that it was absolutely -- his lawyers told him it was absolutely clear that ted cruz was eligible to run for president, and he now flips it, just because ted cruz is getting closer. but more importantly, donald trump was pro-choice, not the pro-life candidate that stands

before you. he was pro gun control, not the second amendment protector that stands before you. he was for planned parenthood, in and out the guy who wants to close down planned parenthood. >> right. >> and he said great things about hillary clinton. and none of it seems to matter. that's what confounds anybody who's lived in politics for their career. i just don't have a clue what's going on. >> that is a very honest answer, governor rendell, and i think if more people were honest, they'd probably say the same thing. thank you very much for joining us. we greatly appreciate it. thank you, elise, as well. a pleasure having you on. and breaking news from wall street. the dow plunged more than 400 points in the first hour of trading, now down 395 points. the plunge comes on the heels of a sell-off in chinese stocks and oil below $30 a barrel. we'll keep an eye on the developments from wall street and bring you any news you need to know there. and coming up, bill clinton campaigns on behalf of hillary clinton in iowa today, this as the former secretary of state accuses senator bernie sanders

of being the first democratic candidate to go "negative." up next, i'll talk live with clinton surrogate, former michigan governor jennifer granholm about clinton's ground game moving forward and her plan for this debate. plus, granholm's reaction to a big development in flint's water crisis. the current michigan governor asking president obama to now issue an emergency and disaster declaration. we'll be right back. it takes a lot of work... to run this business. but i really love it. i'm on the move all day long... and sometimes, i just don't eat the way i should. so i drink boost® to get the nutrition that i'm missing. boost complete nutritional drink has 26 essential vitamins and minerals, including calcium and vitamin d to support strong bones and 10 grams of protein to help maintain muscle. all with a great taste. i don't plan on slowing down any time soon. stay strong. stay active with boost®. i have a massive heart attack oright in my driveway.d

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blasting sanders' health care plan. even daughter chelsea clinton claiming this week sanders wants to dismantle obamacare and leave millions without insurance. on "morning joe," secretary clinton took another shot at sanders. >> basically, he wants to start all over again with a whole new plan and another big national divisive debate, which i just don't agree with, especially with the republicans trying to repeal the gains we've made. >> meantime, clinton's husband, former president bill clinton, is hitting iowa with three events today. just 17 days until the auctions. joining me now, former michigan governor jennifer granholm, a supporter of hillary clinton's campaign. governor, thank you so much for your time. >> you bet, tamron. you bet. >> let's talk about this back-and-forth. senator sanders released an ad yesterday that appears to attack hillary clinton. on the conference call with her campaign yesterday, there was outrage from aides, saying that he violated his pledge to never run a negative attack ad. some people see this as a petty

back-and-forth and a clear sign that the campaign may be worried about iowa, and certainly, new hampshire. >> well, clearly, when you get closer to the finish line, contrasts are drawn, but he did say that he wasn't going to run any negative ads that he never had in his life, and there you go. the bottom line is, on health care, both of them agree that it's important for the u.s. to move toward universal health care, and that picture that he put out from the '90s was when they were working together on that very thing, when she was testifying. now that we have the affordable care act, and president obama has worked so hard to make health care affordable and available to all citizens in this country, she's saying, let's not rip that all up, and he's saying, let's rip it all up. she's the pragmatist. she knows what can happen in washington. the likelihood of ripping all of that up and getting a universal health care plan through a congress like this that he wants is really slim to none. >> looking at bernie sanders,

and not just the picture that he sent out saying that, certainly, he would not leave millions without insurance there, this distinction that is being made between the clinton campaign and the sanders campaign is an obvious one here, but many are wondering how she got in this position in the first place, and is it the right fight, to go after bernie sanders, someone that the party certainly needs and certainly is an ally to the obama administration in many ways? why attempt to paint him as someone who is against the obama administration? >> well, i don't think she's saying that he's against the obama administration. i think they have a difference of opinion about how to proceed going forward on health care, which is really what a campaign is all about. you want to know where one stands and where the other stands. and on this particular issue, there is a difference. and i think that's important. he also said that he was going to put out the cost of his plan before the iowa caucuses, and that hasn't happened yet. that's an important thing to evaluate on behalf of citizens. clearly, both of them want

citizens to be insured. people want to be covered. and i think democrats are united on that. >> but in her interview with rachel maddow, she said, i mean, basically, his new tv ad is a very direct criticism of president obama, who as you might recall took a lot of -- she went on to talk about what she's done, and then she talks about, also, the hardest regulations against wall street since the great depression and that bernie sanders also was against that. so, she's taking a stance on where the party is sort of against the financial industry on the key affordable health care act and saying bernie sanders has run against all of these strides made by the party and by the obama administration. >> right. well, so, he puts out an ad and criticizes her and democrats like president obama for taking contributions from wall street. but what her point is, is that that did not stop president obama from going to bat on behalf of everyday citizens by regulating wall street, and it won't stop her from doing it either. what he's done is sort of, you

know, go against the president, essentially, in terms of wanting to rip up the health care plan, as well as criticisms about accepting any contributions from wall street. she's just pointing out that she sides with the president. >> i do want to ask you, last night, you tweeted out during the debate, i would love this question. if you were plotus, would you help flint, michigan, rebuild its poisonous water infrastructu infrastructure. i want to play what hillary clinton said to rachel maddow regarding the outrage of the inaction of the governor of the state. let's listen in. okay, we've had some technical -- >> the republican governor, governor snyder, is refusing to ask for the triggering of the federal help that he needs in order to take care of the people who are his constituents, and i

am just outraged by this. i would pull out every stop. >> now, overnight, governor snyder requested the emergency disaster declaration, but it is interesting this question did not come up during the debate last night, as you pointed out. >> well, first of all, governor snyder, unfortunately, appointed people who caused the poisoning of an entire city through this infrastructure. if you are responsible for making that happen, you have to fix it, and that means you have to go, as hillary clinton says, and get into the face of the president and all of the appointees, saying i need help, because the state and the city don't have enough resources to be able to fix this problem. the president is coming to the auto show, the detroit international auto show, on the 20th. there's no plans to even meet with him. if i were the governor, i would be on a plane to washington, i would be meeting with all of these federal officials saying we cannot allow this to continue. we need help because it's a

public health crisis. we need help because we need to rebuild the infrastructure so that people are not poisoned. and by the way, these citizens should not be charged and billed by the water department for receiving poisoned water. >> all right, governor granholm, thank you so much for your time. we greatly appreciate it. we want to take our audience to iowa, where donald trump is campaigning in urbandale, his first campaign event since last night's debate. let's listen. >> coupled it very, very poorly. but a couple did really nicely. and i really enjoyed it. you know, i've never done the debating stuff before. these politicians are all talk, no action. they talk and talk and talk and nothing ever happens. they say we're going to fix the va. look, there's a guy. we're going to fix the va, and they talk -- for years i've been hearing we're going to fix the va. nothing ever happens. it's a disaster. in fact, it came out two years ago, it's worse than ever before, because that's a politician. wait until you see what i do. remember the rink in central park, they couldn't -- for years and years, they couldn't do it. i knocked it up in four months,

and to this day, that must have been 30 years ago and nothing changes. and that's what i do. and we fix things. we make things better. we make things better. and our country has to be made better. i mean, our country, we're losing on trade, we're losing with the military. i mean, we can't beat isis. can you imagine general douglas macarthur or general george patton saying, oh, we're having a hard time with isis? they'd wipe that thing clean in two days. and i watched one of the generals on television. you know, we have all these generals, they go on television. my generals aren't going to be on television, because you know what? the enemy learns from them. you say one little thing and they say, oh, he said that, now we're prepared. i just imagine george patton sitting down being interviewed by a reporter saying exactly what he's going to do. well, yes, we're going to attack them here. remember obama a few weeks ago said we're sending 50 men, 50 people. so, now the enemy is waiting for those 50 people. they're there. there's a target on their back.

instead of keeping your mouth shut and just doing it properly, right? you don't know, it's unbelievable. or how about we shouldn't have been in iraq, it was a mistake. i was against it many years ago, and i was strongly against it, headlines -- trump was -- i don't even know why they quoted me, but trump -- because you were going to destabilize the middle east. so, they made a terrible mistake. now what happens? you have to get out. obama gives the date we're leaving. we'll be gone in what was it, 18 months, gives the exact date. the enemy says, wow, this is great. they pulled back. i couldn't believe it! i thought it might be camouflage of some form. we pull back, right? and the enemy goes back, doesn't work too hard. they don't want to be killed, even though you hear they want to be killed. believe me, they don't want to be killed. so, they pull back, we leave, and it's a mess. it's a mess. so, you've got to keep your little ideas to yourself. and we will do something so special with the military.

when cnn did a recent poll -- and it was a big one -- forget about the fact that i'm winning every poll. we're winning now every single poll and we're winning in iowa. we're winning in iowa. and i really want to win iowa. you know, people say, oh, well, just say you want to do well in iowa. just say you want to do well. that way in the end if you come in second or third or fourth, you can say -- i say, i want to win iowa. we have a great relationship with the evangelicals, like fantastic. and with the tea party. with everybody in iowa. and i really want to win it. i mean, to me, this is going to be fun. i'm going to be here a lot. i'm going to be here so much in the next two weeks, you're going to be sick of me. you're going to say, oh, i can't stand him! i don't want to see him anymore. look at those beautiful hats. "make america great again." they're "make america great again" hats. that's a real one. that's one made in the usa. i know the difference. those aren't made in the usa. they're not mine. they have the right slogan. you know the problem? these hats have become so hot --

that's why i immediately love this guy. the hats have become so hot that "the new york times" did a story -- it's one of the hottest accessories for women. do you believe it? they go to fancy balls wearing the hat. but it really has been a great thing. so, we are going to do things that are going to be so exciting and so good, but i want to win iowa. we have to get out -- you have to get out to the caucuses. and you know the theory -- because we always get the biggest crowds. no matter where we go, we get the biggest crowds. and the only thing that pundits can say is, well, maybe, maybe they won't show up. and the other day, you heard we had 15,000 people, and 7,000 people were sent -- we couldn't get them into the arena. and the pundits are saying, well, but maybe they won't show up to vote. and maybe they won't, but it seems crazy, because some of those people were waiting in line for seven hours in the cold. i don't even know how you do it. but seven hours in the cold. and they wait and wait and wait, and it just seems hard to

believe that you wait seven hours in the cold, and then they like me more after the event and then don't show up to vote or caucus or whatever it is. but i think in the case of new hampshire, the vote. and i think they're going to show up. i think, actually, i have a feeling -- we're leading in all the polls -- i have a feeling we're going to actually do better than the polls are saying. >> there you have it, donald trump at a rally in urbandale, iowa. let me bring in political editor, nbc senior political editor mark murray. mark, you have there donald trump discussing a lot of what we've heard on the programs, including here, there is some skepticism that some of this passion, some of this support will not translate to actual votes. trump has made this point for a few days, you have people willing to stand in the cold for hours to support him. why wouldn't they show up at the caucuses or in new hampshire to vote? >> reporter: yeah, and tamron, i was really struck in the comments that he made that he's all in on iowa. this isn't to get second or

third place or get a really close second to ted cruz. he wants to be able to beat ted cruz. and of course, the iowa contest is a very different contest than we see nationwide. but in the national nbc/"wall street journal" poll, donald trump is dominating and really kind of taking command, you know. not only has he more than doubled his lead from 5 points in december to 13 points, but the number, the percentage of republicans who say they could support him is now at 65% in our poll. that's up from 23% who said that back in march. and so, not only in the polls, in last night's debate, which was his best performance, and donald trump really almost has this race that he has taken control of it. now, i've been through a lot of presidential contests to know that the person who's doing well 15, 16 days before iowa, three weeks before the new hampshire primary, isn't always your winner. we have a long ways to go. but that is your reality right now, the day after last night's republican debate, as these candidates are making their final sprints to iowa and new hampshire. >> and it is so interesting when you look at some of the reaction

and reviews, mark, from last night's debate. you've pointed out this was perhaps donald trump's best performance. in prior debates, he has taken on a different persona, kind laying in the back and waiting for someone to go after him. so, not to say that it was a low bar, but he has had a strategy in the other, what is it, six debates, not to be the aggres r aggressor. there was an anticipation that there would be a confrontation with ted cruz. so, let's look at, for example, this new york values back-and-forth, becoming emotional, talking about how this city suffered and rebuilt, high marks there in new york and certainly along the mainstream media. but in iowa, would you have voters there taking offense to what ted cruz said? >> reporter: and that's what makes the contest in iowa so fascinating. we see all the poll numbers and see a very neck in neck contest. the question is, who will turn out? iowa we've seen time and time again is dominated by

evangelical voters. more than 50% were evangelical in the 2012 caucuses that rick santorum ended up winning. the question is, do the same evangelical christians go for someone like donald trump? we know ted cruz is sitting well with them right now, but do they also go for donald trump, to be able to allow him to not only get second, but to be able to get first place? so you know, we will know 2 1/2 weeks from now the answer to that question. everything right now is punditry that i'm giving, all speculation, but i'm actually excited as someone who's following these contests that we're going to have an answer to that question very, very soon. >> i am, too. this is like when you really want to speed to the end of the book because the middle is just exhausting. i do want to follow up, too, on this whole issue of whether or not ted cruz is flustered by this question of whether or not he is eligible to be president, or as donald trump said last night, vice president. you had ted cruz try to throw out something about trump's lineage. when i was looking at that, in review it seems as if he is throwing this out because he says, listen, if donald trump

can throw out one thing in september and throw out something else a few months later, is that the strategy in a world where we are all being criticized for allowing donald trump, even when he's been fact-checked, to then dispute the facts repeatedly? >> reporter: yeah, and tamron, you know, even donald trump admitted last night that the reason he was bringing up the birther issue has to do with the polls, that ted cruz is ahead in iowa, rising up in national surveys, as we've seen. but i've been struck as someone, you and i have been through the entire 2010-2011 birther controversy that donald trump kicked up about president obama, that president obama knocked down when he had his birth certificate. what i've been fascinated by, and still, there are many, many constitutional scholars who say that donald trump people have a case when it comes to this birther charge, but there are some prominent voices like harvard's larry tryde who said wait, this isn't settled. and that's what's surprising, is

that some of the sharpest legal minds in the country have said there could be some questions, putting ted cruz on the defensive more than we've seen thus far. >> absolutely, and that's great point. you have six over here, a half dozen on the other hand saying, you know, what it eventually does in the middle is keep this issue there and make it a problem for ted cruz, meaning he can't talk about other things, other policy issues that he may want to bring in the forefront, and that would be the trump strategy. >> reporter: and that's been the situation for ted cruz now for about ten days as this has gone on. and you and i, when we talk about ted cruz, it's the birther issue. reporters are asking him on the campaign trail. that's not how you want to be able to close a race. all that said, ted cruz is still sitting pretty in iowa, particularly with the evangelical christians in iowa. he is your iowa front-runner. you win iowa, you control your own destiny. and so, even though he's on the defensive, that's what happens to front-runners, tamron. >> absolutely. >> that you're ahead in the polls in iowa, nationwide.

you're getting a lot of scrutiny, the attacks that are coming to ted cruz. we'll see how he's able to take those attacks the next 2 1/2 weeks. >> absolutely, mark. thank you very much. and it's remarkable how you're staying dry, even though there is like a flood behind you. >> reporter: i have a great crew, tamron. >> excellent, mark. thank you. >> reporter: thank you. coming up, as we reported, donald trump is back on the trail in iowa. we just showed you the rally there live after clashing with ted cruz over the birther issue. up next, i'll talk live with one of his opponents for the gop nomination, mike huckabee. we'll see what governor huckabee has to say. to folks out there whose diabetic nerve pain... shoots and burns its way into your day, i hear you. to everyone with this pain that makes ordinary tasks extraordinarily painful, i hear you. make sure your doctor hears you too! i hear you because i was there when my dad suffered with diabetic nerve pain. if you have diabetes and burning, shooting pain in your feet or hands, don't suffer in silence! step on up

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there is still a lot we don't know about who are the powerball winners of the $1.6 billion prize, but this morning, one couple from tennessee came forward, and they say that they bought one of the three winning tickets. now, john and lisa robinson say they kept the secret until this exclusive interview this morning on the "today" show.

i had a chance to talk with them as well about what happens next. >> well, nobody knew up to this point, right? nobody knew he had a ticket. now we have our bodyguards coming around. >> that's right. >> and you're going straight back to tennessee to properly authenticate it -- >> hand it all over. >> your phone has rang 500 times. how many people have your phone number, lisa? >> obviously, we're listed. >> not anymore. >> no, we will be going private. >> as i mentioned, the robinsons are headed back to tennessee to get the ticket authenticated. they say that it is the winning ticket, and we'll see what happens next. and coming up, republican presidential candidate mike huckabee claimed last night that most mass shootings happen in gun-free zones, but is that true? up next, i'll talk live with the former governor about what's next for his campaign. es. my men driven nearly mad from starvation and frostbite.

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republican debate. and the fireworks on the main stage of last night's debate are still generating a lot this morning. pointed moments in the so-called undercard debate with 17 days before iowa, how many times can you say that, the undercard field was significantly smaller to just mike huckabee, rick asantorum ad carly fiorina. rand paul boycotted the debate after missing the cut for the main stage. >> we need a president who understands technology in the oval office. mrs. clinton, actually, you cannot wipe a server with a towel. >> right now, just like in every other aspect of our national security, people who attack us are not paying the price. we need a leader who will make sure that they know when they mess with america, they are going to pay a price. >> our first and foremost responsibility in this country and the first responsibility of

the president of the united states is protect america and protect americans. we have a president who seems to be more interested in protecting the reputation and image of islam than he is protecting us. >> joining me now, presidential candidate and former arkansas governor mike huckabee. governor, thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you, tamron. great to be with you. >> let's talk about what's happening in iowa. we know 2008, you took that state. now, it is at this point a different showing there. how do you believe you will fare in iowa which gave you momentum the last time around? >> well, we still think there's a pathway for us. we are doing 150 events in iowa in january. iowa has always been won by the person who spent the most time on the ground, the person who had the most visits and met the most voters and personally asked for their support. iowa voters break late. they did eight years ago, they did four years ago. we believe that 2016 will not be

that different when it comes to voting time. >> but if they break late and somehow you finish in the top three, with all due respect, that would be extraordinary with what we see in the polling now. right now, donald trump is at a rally, a packed room yet again, thousands there. he is saying that for the next two weeks, he basically won't leave iowa. looking realistically at the prospects ahead, do you believe donald trump will take that state? >> i don't know. nobody's voted yet. not one single person in all of america has cast a vote. polls don't really often depict. matt bevin won kentucky's governor's race with a nine point lead. a week away everybody said he would be defeated by eight or ten points. so the polls throughout this year have really been pretty sketchy but i do think this, that the voters of iowa will make up their mind and i think when they get down to it they will say look, maybe we need to go with the guy we know, a guy that has had the experience as a

governor, who has had successful record, who fought the clinton machine in his own state and successfully won repeatedly and somebody who can represent the working class people of this country, who grew up that way and who can talk about those issues like i did last night, that i think resonate with folks who stood on their feet their whole life working at a factory. >> while donald trump did not grow up that way, as you pointed out your own personal biography, there seems to be something about his message through the national poll as he just said, he's leading in just about every poll. if he is your party's nominee and there are reports that some of the establishment wing of your party basically resigned to the fact that we are looking at the gop nominee and they are going to get behind him. if donald trump is the gop nominee, will you support him? >> of course. in fact, i'm going to be pretty unhappy if some of the establishment people who force donald trump to sign a loyalty oath to the party and guarantee that he wouldn't run as a third

party, if he has to pledge his loyalty to the party, shouldn't the party pledge its loyalty to him? i mean, that's only fair. they should do the same with me or whoever is the nominee. you know, i still feel like i'm in contention for the process. but if donald trump's the nominee of course we will get behind him. i believe he would make so much more of an effective president than hillary clinton would. and i know both of them and i will take donald trump every day of the week and twice on sunday. >> with that said, evangelicals speaking of sunday, very important in iowa. we know they are critical. what disitinguishes you from donald trump in iowa with va evangelicals? here you are a minister, you are siding with this new york values as ted cruz referred to him last night type of guy. >> i thought donald trump handled that whole issue of new york values very, very

effectively. evangelicals also care about their jobs. they care about the future of this country. they care about national security. they are not a monolithic vote. i wish they had been in 2008. i would have won the nomination. the reason i ended up second to mccain in the entire process rather than first was because the evangelicals weren't monolithic. they never have been. i think a lot of people assume they are. they're not. >> got to ask you about this debate moment. you said that more mass shootings have happened in gun-free zones. there are a number of nonpartisan independent agencies that have refuted that, including trace.org. they say there is no evidence that gun-free zones are targeted more than other places. furthermore, they went on to say a good guy with a gun has never stopped a mass shooting. what proof do you point to, what numbers do you point to that gun-free zones are more targeted for mass shootings? >> well, that's disingenuous for them to say that. because i didn't say they were targeted because. i said they happened in gun-free

zones. that's a fact. you can't name one that happened in a gun-free -- or in a zone other than a gun-free zone with perhaps the exception of the gabby giffords shooting in arizona. every other mass shooting has been in a gun-free zone. that's just an outright fact. whether that was the motive of the shooter, you would have to ask the shooter and most of them are dead so we are never going to be able to really know that. >> governor, thank you so much for joining us. we have run out of time. it is a great pleasure having you on today. thank you. >> thank you. that does it for this hour of "msnbc live." i'm tamron hall. up next, chris matthews hosts "andrea mitchell reports."

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back in september, my friend donald said that he had had his lawyers look at this from every which way. there was nothing to this birther issue. since september, the constitution hasn't changed. but the poll numbers have. i'm not going to use your mother's birth against you. >> because it wouldn't work. >> the establishment, the rest of the pack fights for the eastern conference title. >> governor christie has endorsed many of the ideas that barack obama supports. >> the reason, you had your chance. you blew it. >> wow. second opinion, hillary clinton says bernie sanders' health care plan isn't the cure. >> it's a bit concerning to me because it would basically end all the kinds of health care we know. >> we would have a medicare premium for all people and zero private health insurance. private health insurance premiums.